GRAPHIC/TEXT INTEGRATION - AGGREGATION/DISAGGREGATION- 31

Source: Economist - carenini@cs.pitt.edu

Forecast in the context of historical data

Text provides:

• Information about the aggregate"the six biggest economies of Central Europe": forecast of a value (budget deficit) for one year (1996) and value expressed as a percentace of GDP.
• Justification for chart: it show that the components of the aggregate contributed and will contribute to the aggregate with considerable differences
• Describe evolution of one particular component (the worst): "Althougth it is improving, the worst will be the worst"

TEXT:"The overall current-account deficit for the six biggest economies of Central Europe (Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Romania and Bulgaria) is forecast to be $6.2 billion in the 1996, or 2% of their total GDP. But, as the chart shows, there are considerable differences between countries. Although the Europe Commission expects the Hungarian current-account deficit to shrink, it is likely to remain the largest in the region.