How could strategic voting have affected the federal election of 2008?

Consider how strategic voting could have affected the result of the election in 2008. We use a simple model: if some proportion of the voters for the Liberal Party, the NDP and the Green Party had voted strategically, and had not voted for the Conservative Party, what would the House of Commons look like?

The following is based on the validated "Official Reports" of the Elections Canada - Elections Night Results. The following ridings could have different results if a proportion of the voters voted strategically. If only 0.3 of the NDP and Green supporters in Kitchener-Waterloo had votes strategically, the Liberal candidate would have won the seat. If 86% of the Liberal and NDP supporters in Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound had voted strategically, the Greens would have won the riding. If 75% of the voters voted strategically, the Liberals would have won more seats than the Conservatives. Notice how it is good for all of the parties participating to have their supporters vote strategically; all of the parties get more seats.

# % voters who need to vote strategically Riding New Winner # Conservative seats # Liberal seats # NDP seats # BQ seats # Green seats
1 0.295403 Kitchener--Waterloo Lib 142 77 37 50 0
2 2.70035 Egmont Lib 141 78 37 50 0
3 2.83801 Kitchener Centre Lib 140 79 37 50 0
4 4.42729 Oak Ridges--Markham Lib 139 80 37 50 0
5 4.72057 Mississauga--Erindale Lib 138 81 37 50 0
6 6.67293 Saint John Lib 137 82 37 50 0
7 8.01651 South Shore--St. Margaret's NDP 136 82 38 50 0
8 10.8264 Saskatoon--Rosetown--Biggar NDP 135 82 39 50 0
9 15.1079 London West Lib 134 83 39 50 0
10 15.4642 Surrey North NDP 133 83 40 50 0
11 16.0856 Nunavut Lib 132 84 40 50 0
12 17.3204 West Nova Lib 131 85 40 50 0
13 24.3418 North Vancouver Lib 130 86 40 50 0
14 24.43 Miramichi Lib 129 87 40 50 0
15 25.2186 Saanich--Gulf Islands Lib 128 88 40 50 0
16 28.7989 Oshawa NDP 127 88 41 50 0
17 31.6464 Kenora Lib 126 89 41 50 0
18 35.358 Essex Lib 125 90 41 50 0
19 36.063 Vancouver Island North NDP 124 90 42 50 0
20 36.4625 Brant Lib 123 91 42 50 0
21 37.4367 Ottawa--Orléans Lib 122 92 42 50 0
22 41.3852 Pontiac Lib 121 93 42 50 0
23 43.0585 Fredericton Lib 120 94 42 50 0
24 46.5978 Palliser NDP 119 94 43 50 0
25 49.5295 Ottawa West--Nepean Lib 118 95 43 50 0
26 53.7549 Haldimand--Norfolk Lib 117 96 43 50 0
27 57.1953 Kamloops--Thompson--Cariboo NDP 116 96 44 50 0
28 58.2097 Huron--Bruce Lib 115 97 44 50 0
29 61.9511 Saint Boniface Lib 114 98 44 50 0
30 62.1374 Oakville Lib 113 99 44 50 0
31 62.346 West Vancouver--Sunshine Coast--Sea to Sky Country Lib 112 100 44 50 0
32 63.6559 Fleetwood--Port Kells Lib 111 101 44 50 0
33 65.9446 Glengarry--Prescott--Russell Lib 110 102 44 50 0
34 68.3611 St. Catharines Lib 109 103 44 50 0
35 70.9628 Nanaimo--Alberni NDP 108 103 45 50 0
36 71.4286 Halton Lib 107 104 45 50 0
37 74.174 Newmarket--Aurora Lib 106 105 45 50 0
38 74.2507 Ancaster--Dundas--Flamborough--Westdale Lib 105 106 45 50 0
39 74.9446 Niagara Falls Lib 104 107 45 50 0
40 75.8646 Peterborough Lib 103 108 45 50 0
41 75.9103 Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River Lib 102 109 45 50 0
42 81.918 Chatham-Kent--Essex Lib 101 110 45 50 0
43 82.9012 Thornhill Lib 100 111 45 50 0
44 84.6161 Burlington Lib 99 112 45 50 0
45 85.6746 Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound Green 98 112 45 50 1
46 88.0375 Winnipeg South Lib 97 113 45 50 1
47 88.6729 Northumberland--Quinte West Lib 96 114 45 50 1
48 90.1906 Cambridge Lib 95 115 45 50 1
49 93.5729 Edmonton Centre Lib 94 116 45 50 1
50 94.04 Perth--Wellington Lib 93 117 45 50 1
51 94.7304 Kitchener--Conestoga Lib 92 118 45 50 1
52 95.3539 Elgin--Middlesex--London Lib 91 119 45 50 1
53 96.9642 Simcoe North Lib 90 120 45 50 1